The fact is, if we had a group of people, who went through every single warp for a week, and then recorded whether or not there was a planet, and then we did the math at the end, we would probably end up close to 1/3

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"Imagine, 7 million people all wanting to live together. New York must be the friendliest place on the face of the Earth"

Pie Eating, Spam Making Member of CiDG

I am back, come and get me.

I concur the 1/3 probablility is can only be expected to be true if you were to go though the warp an infinite number of times.

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be ye therefore wise as serpents, and harmless as doves
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AIDG CONVERGENCE. WAS PART OF THE MUPPETSTORM.

ah, but there is also a theory called the law of large numbers, which says after a large number of trials, you will come close to the average probabiliy 99% of the time. In general, a large number of attempts is viewed for something like a 33% probability as being anything larger than 60 attempts.

Since the warp moves every 15 minutes, then 60 attempts is 15 hours. So, if you use the warp every time for 60 warps over 15 hours, you should have an average of about 18 to 22 planets found.

We track the warp statistics over time as well for all players, and it is seldom off by more than a few percentages over a day.

HOWEVER, the warp often only finds a planet for the FIRST person to use it, as that person often captures and obliterates the planet if it is a green one, or a system with a green one in it, so that they can find newbies and not have others follow them via finding the warp planet later during the same 15 minute period.

So, if you are slow to use the warp after it moves, you might find less planets on average.

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"Of all the things I have lost, I miss my mind the most."

So in short, we were right?

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Make your move, reindeer games.